Heading into this year the big question was, and still is, just how many times will the Fed cut interest rates? The market was anticipating six cuts which is why we saw rates drop like a rock from 8% to the mid 6’s. However If you’ve been reading my market updates for a while you will know that predictions are about as good as the Eagles defense. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said this week that he expects there will be three cuts by the end of the year. Helping his case was the blowout jobs report that came out on Friday. The forecast was for 180k but the actual number came in at 353k. When it comes to mortgage rates what is good for the economy is bad for rates. That report shows that the economy is still strong on paper. In order to get six cuts this year there will need to be a combination of weaker jobs report and lower inflation.

It’s also important to keep in mind that, when you step back, rates actually haven’t changed all that much. In fact, looking back over the last few weeks we have seen rates be almost exactly the same. Rates rarely go down in a straight line, most of the time there is an upper and lower range that they bounce between. That is what we saw last week. I still think the end is in sight it just depends on how long it takes to get there. In the meantime I wouldn’t expect the first rate cut in March, my guess would be the April/May meeting.

Recap:

-January job report was much higher than expected

-Fed anticipates three rate cuts this year

-First rate cut probably won’t happen in March