Job growth was slightly above estimates in November, as the jobs report showed that 227K new jobs were created. Revisions to previous data for September and October added 56K jobs to those months combined. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% while the average duration of unemployment climbed to the highest since April 2022.

Despite 227k new jobs being added the unemployment number also managed to tick up as well, confusing right? When you dig into the numbers you will also find that the largest increase of these jobs were 16-19 year olds which is not a great sign. This is probably why we see rates improving despite the report beating expectations.

If I had to guess I would say that the Fed is still looking to cut another .25% on December 18^th. Seeing the unemployment rate tick up will be a concerning sign for the Fed. There is an inflation report that comes out next week which will be last piece of information that could impact the Fed meeting. Outside of that with the new administration coming in next month that could also have an impact on rates depending on what the new policies are implemented. Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has been seen as a positive move by the markets and is probably another reason why we have seen a bit of a rally with rates.

Recap:

-Job report came in slightly above expectations

-Unemployment rate did tick up to 4.2% which should get the attention of the Fed

-Inflation report comes out next week which could have an impact on rates

-Good chance of another rate cut on December 18^th

Rate sheet below graphic