The Fed met this week and, as expected, did not cut rates. No surprise there. Markets were already priced for a hold, so the decision itself didn’t move mortgage rates.

Here are a few things that have been moving rates:

Trump previously said he would appoint a new Fed Chair by now. The fact that he hasn’t isn’t necessarily cause for alarm, but it does raise some questions. Are his expectations for the role too burdensome to attract a qualified candidate? He has often talked about his desire to control rates and has said he could do a better job than any Fed Chair. Is he looking for someone who will simply do what he wants, or is he open to allowing the Fed to remain independent?

Rates had actually been trending lower until tensions with Denmark over control of Greenland surfaced. Didn’t have that one on my bingo card.

The bond market values stability. When the President of the United States openly suggests the possibility of invading a NATO ally over Greenland, that introduces uncertainty and uncertainty puts upward pressure on rates. We’ve already seen him bomb Iran and remove the head of Venezuela, so I think it’s fair to say markets aren’t dismissing these comments outright. While he has since backed off the invasion rhetoric, the fact that it was even discussed is something the bond market can’t ignore. All that being said, rates have still been pretty stable which is good to see in light of this news. I do think it does put a damper on how low we can expect interest rates to go this year though.

Lastly, if you own any gold or silver jewelry, now might not be a bad time to offload some of it — prices for both are at record levels.

Why does that matter? Gold, silver, and bonds are all considered safe-haven assets. When money is flowing into gold and silver at record levels, it often means less money is flowing into bonds. It’s also a way investors hedge against the U.S. itself or at least not be so reliant on the US bond market. All of which is not what you want to see if you’re hoping for lower interest rates.

So what’s next? Prediction markets are currently pricing in only two rate cuts this year. The next Fed meeting isn’t until March, so inflation and jobs reports will continue to drive rates in the meantime  along with any news related to a potential Fed Chair appointment.

Recap:

-No rate cut at the meeting

-Next Fed chair has not been announced, it was expected before the end of last year

-Next Fed meeting is at the end of March, only two cuts are expected this year