With a contentious election behind us I think both sides can agree that at least we don’t have to get 20 text messages a day from political parties. Seriously I was contemplating getting a burner phone it was ridiculous!

Not only was there an election this week the Fed also cut rates by .25%. This cut was expected and had nothing to do with the election which is important to point out. The next fed meeting is December 18^th and currently there is about a 70% chance they will cut rates by another .25%. The Fed is walking a tightrope to avoid inflation ramping back up but also trying to avoid a recession by keeping rates too high for too long. You can see from the chart below that the last three times the Fed was in the process of cutting rates the economy entered a recession which is the grayed out areas. If they somehow manage to pull this off without a recession or higher inflation then they should put up a statue of Fed Chair Powell.

The next few months will be interesting as the market tries to predict what a 2^nd Trump term will look like. The house races haven’t all been called yet although it looks like Republicans will control that too albeit by a small margin. Right now it looks like it could be 5-10 seats which is pretty thin.

As far as rates are concerned we did have a pretty big run up in rates so there was bound to be some relief which we are seeing. Whether that continues will remain to be seen. Mid to late November has been pretty good for rates the past few years so hopefully that continues. Now that the election is over the inflation and jobs reports will take center stage again.

Recap:

• Fed cut .25% as was expected
• 70% chance the Fed cuts again in December
• Job & inflation reports will continue to be important