Just in time for the holiday weekend it’s a new market update! I hear it makes for a perfect beach read.

If you remember my last update I mentioned that rates were at an important level. They were at the highest since last October and if rates continued to increase past that level then things might have gotten pretty ugly. Luckily rates bounced back down after hitting that key level. That’s a good sign for rates not only in the short term but the long term as well. The more times rates are contained at that level it only makes it harder to break through, potentially marking a cap to how high rates can go. That’s not to say rates can’t go higher but it means that it will take a lot more negative data. Things like a strong jobs report or surging inflation could be that catalyst.

Speaking of which, the August jobs report came in just about expectations at 187,000. Also, June and July’s estimate was revised down by a combined 120,000 which shows that the economy might be slowing down. That should give the Fed enough cover to not raise interest rates at the upcoming meeting on September 20^th. It’s probably a coin flip if they raise rates in October.

So what does this mean for interest rates? In the short term, I think we could see more relief in rates, it would be nice to get into the 6’s again! Even if rates do drop lower that doesn’t mean that we won’t see this level of rates again. However, I think in the short term we could see some lower rates which would be a sight for sore eyes.

Recap:

-Rates moved lower after reaching highest rates since last fall

-Jobs report points to a slowing economy which is good for rates

-Inflation data comes out on 9/13

-Likely no rate hike this month, 50/50 chance for October